LAO

This script synthesizes the results for different domestic and international carbon policies in LAO. There are two groups of counterfactuals considered: changes in policies in all sectors and how this affects all GHG and changes in policies in only the EITE sectors (paper, petroleum and coke, chemical products, non-metallic minerals, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity) and how this affects CO2 emissions.

These results assume a social cost of carbon equal to $163 and a carbon price equal to $163 (click here to view the results at different carbon prices).

The countries we study are listed below. Each link will take you to an in-depth, country level analysis.

Our counterfactuals are split into two parts.

Part 1

CTF1: Setting tariffs to bilateral mean (Shapiro)

CTF2: Setting tariffs to OECD mean

CTF3: Carbon policy

CTF4: Carbon policy + CBAM

Part 2

CTF5: Large country coalition

CTF6: Large country coalition + developing country respond with equivalence

CTF7: Large country coalition + developing country respond without equivalence

LAO baseline description

In this section, we describe the baseline characteristics for LAO prior to any counterfactual policies.

Income

The sources of income can be broken down into 8 categories: Value added, deficits, and revenues from tariffs, production taxes, labor taxes, material taxes, and consumption taxes. The graph below depicts the different sources of income for LAO in the baseline.

Trade flows

This section describes the trade flows for LAO by sector and trade partners.

The graph below depicts the imports and exports by sector.

The first map below depicts from where LAO is importing from and the second map depicts to which country they are exporting to.

Final consumption

The graph below represents the final consumption shares for LAO in each sector.

Emissions

This section describes the level of emissions in LAO from the baseline. There are four greenhouse gasses we consider: CO2, CH4, N2O, and FGAS.The figure below reports the level of emissions disaggregated sector and type.

The figure below depicts the emissions intensities (tons of CO2 equivalent per dollar produced) from the combustion of to CO2 and from all GHG in the production process.

Part 1

Income

The figure below reports the % changes in the sources of income for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports how the income levels compare against the baseline level of income in LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in real vs nominal income for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Prices

The figure below reports the % change in the final price index for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in the sectoral price index for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Trade flows

The figure below reports the % change in the trade flows for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in imports

The figure below reports the % change in the imports from each partner country for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in exports

The figure below reports the % change in the exports to each partner country for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Emissions

The figure below reports the % change in the CO2 and GHG emissions for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in emissions for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Welfare

The figure below reports the % change in welfare for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Part 2

Income

The figure below reports the % changes in the sources of income for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports how the income levels compare against the baseline level of income in LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in real vs nominal income for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Prices

The figure below reports the % change in final price index for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in sectoral price index for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Trade flows

The figure below reports the % change in sectoral price index for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in imports

The figure below reports the % change in the imports from each partner country for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in exports

The figure below reports the % change in the exports to each partner country for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Emissions

The figure below reports the % change in CO2 and GHG emissions for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in emissions for LAO under each counterfactual policy.

Welfare

The figure below reports the % change in welfare for LAO under each counterfactual policy.